Finansministeriet · SSB · Ifo Institut · Konjunkturinstitutet · INPS · PBO
Do Immigrants Cost More Than They Contribute?
Results Vary Widely by Country
Denmark −DKK 16bn/yr, Germany −€2.1bn/yr, Sweden +SEK 6bn/yr (labour migrants only). The outcome depends heavily on migrant profile and methodology.
Country-level official data (primary sources)
| Country | Net fiscal balance | Source | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denmark | −16 billion DKK/year (total); non-Western: −27bn; Western: +11bn | Finansministeriet 2023 | All immigrants and descendants |
| Norway | −4.1m NOK/person (net present value, 2012 NOK) | SSB / Holmøy & Strøm 2017, group R3 | R3 group (rest of world: asylum & non-European family migration), 2015 cohort, measured 2015–2100 |
| Germany | −2.1 billion €/year | Ifo Institut 2023 | All immigrants |
| Sweden | +6 billion SEK | Konjunkturinstitutet 2020 | Labour migrants only |
| Italy | Net contribution (pensions) | INPS 2023 | Contributions to the INPS pension system |
| Canada / Australia | Net contribution | PBO / PC Report 2023 | Skilled migrants only |
Methodological limits
- Scope differences: The definition of "fiscal balance" varies by country. Countries that include education and healthcare costs are not comparable to those that exclude them.
- Static vs. dynamic models: Static models (current tax and benefit flows) and dynamic models (lifetime contributions including descendants) produce substantially different results.
- Population scope: "All immigrants," "non-Western immigrants," "refugees," and "labour migrants" have fundamentally different fiscal profiles.
- Business cycle sensitivity: Results vary depending on the economic conditions at the time of measurement.
What this data does not show
- Figures across countries cannot be added together. Different methodologies make cross-country arithmetic invalid.
- The fiscal outcome depends heavily on migrant profile (labour migrants vs. refugees / family reunification) and length of stay. The same label "immigrant" can produce opposite results.
- Whether the fiscal balance is positive or negative is not the sole criterion for evaluating immigration policy. Labour shortages, demographic trends, and cultural factors are not captured in fiscal statistics.
- Correlation vs. causation: if fiscal deficits increased during periods of high immigration, this does not mean immigration caused the deficit. Recessions, ageing populations, and other concurrent factors may be at work.
Primary sources
- Finansministeriet (2023). Indvandreres nettobidrag til de offentlige finanser. www.fm.dk
- Statistics Norway / SSB (2017). Costs and benefits of immigration. www.ssb.no
- Ifo Institut (2023). Fiskalische Kosten der Zuwanderung. www.ifo.de
- Konjunkturinstitutet / KI (2020). Samhällsekonomiska effekter av migration. www.konj.se
- INPS (2023). Contributi previdenziali degli stranieri. www.inps.it
- Parliamentary Budget Office Canada / PBO (2023). www.pbo-dpb.ca