Switzerland

1. Official institutions

• OFS/BFS (Federal Statistical Office, Office fédéral de la statistique) — national statistical institute: https://www.bfs.admin.ch
• SEM (State Secretariat for Migration, Secrétariat d’État aux migrations) — asylum and residence permit statistics
• KOF (Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich) — economic analyses

2. Key datasets

• OFS: resident foreign population by nationality/permit, employment
• SEM: detailed asylum statistics (monthly reports), one of the most granular series in Europe on residence permits by category (B, C, F, N, etc.)
• OFS also publishes a police crime statistic (SPC) with a breakdown by nationality — data regularly cited in Swiss public debate, to be presented with the official methodological caveats (demographic structure, residence status)

3. Demographics

3.1 Current population composition

• As of December 31, 2025, Switzerland’s permanent resident population stood at 9,124,300 (+73,300 year-on-year, +0.8%). Of these, approximately 2,526,642 are permanent foreign residents, around 27.7% of the total population. Trend: the share of foreign nationals rose from 21.7% (1.624 million) in 2003 and 20.7% (1,554,527) in 2007 to approximately 28% by 2025 — Switzerland has one of the highest shares of resident foreign population in Europe. Source: OFS, population trend press release (published April 1, 2026, 2025 provisional figures) — https://www.admin.ch/fr/newnsb/acGCTisDEW60tUk1jSz4Z
• The majority of permanent foreign residents in Switzerland are EU/EFTA citizens, mainly Italian, German, Portuguese, and French — an important methodological point to keep clearly distinct from extra-European immigration and asylum. Source: OFS, “Composition of the foreign population” (Composition de la population étrangère): https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/fr/home/statistiques/population/migration-integration/nationalite-etrangere/composition.html
• Using a broader measure including naturalized citizens and second generation (“migration status”): in 2024, 41% of the permanent resident population aged 15 or older has a migration background (3,086,000 people), of whom more than a third (1,140,000 people) hold Swiss nationality — i.e., already naturalized. Of the population with a migration background, about four-fifths (2,456,000) are first generation, and the remaining one-fifth (630,000) are Switzerland-born second generation. Source: OFS, “Population by migration status” (Population selon le statut migratoire): https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/fr/home/statistiques/population/migration-integration/selon-statut-migratoire.html
• Asylum (State Secretariat for Migration, SEM): 25,781 asylum applications filed in 2025, down about 7% from 2024. Main applicant nationalities: Afghanistan (6,207 applications, -28.1% year-on-year), Eritrea (3,415 applications, +63.2% year-on-year). Source: SEM, “Asylum statistics” (Statistique en matière d’asile): https://www.sem.admin.ch/sem/fr/home/publiservice/statistik/asylstatistik.html

3.2 Origin breakdown (EU/EFTA vs. extra-European)

Source: OFS, “Composition de la population étrangère” — bfs.admin.ch

• The top 5 nationalities are Italy (348,306), Germany (334,111), Portugal (264,355), France (175,757), and Kosovo (117,350) — the top four are all EU/EFTA member states, while Kosovo alone is extra-European (former Yugoslavia).

• Breakdown by type of residence permit (Swiss permit system, among the most detailed in Europe): permit B/L (residence, +2.9% between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025), permit C (settlement, +0.7%), permit G (cross-border commuters, +1.5%, about 410,000 people in Q3 2025, i.e., +20% over five years), permit L (short-term, -5.8%). Permit F corresponds to temporary admission and permit N to asylum seekers in proceedings — categories distinct from EU/EFTA labor immigration. Source: OFS/SEM, labor force and permit statistics: https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/fr/home/statistiques/population/migration-integration/nationalite-etrangere.html

3.3 Immigration waves (1950s – present)

• 1951–1970: Switzerland’s largest immigration wave to date. Driven by rapid economic growth, the number of foreigners holding annual or settlement permits reached 2.68 million. Between 1950 and 1970, the number of Italians working in Switzerland quadrupled to 583,855. This wave was initially Italian, later Spanish, and eventually Portuguese. Source: RTS (Swiss public broadcaster), “Historique des migrations en Suisse” — https://www.rts.ch/decouverte/monde-et-societe/monde/migrations/9369277-historique-des-migrations-en-suisse.html
• Introduced in 1931, with an annual cantonal quota added in July 1963: the “seasonal worker” status (saisonnier, “permit A”), limiting stays to the duration of the work season (max. 9 months), with reduced social benefits, no right to change employer or residence, and no family reunification. Source: Historical Dictionary of Switzerland (HLS-DHS-DSS), “Saisonniers” — https://hls-dhs-dss.ch/textes/f/F25738.php
• 2002: the seasonal worker status was abolished following the signing of the Switzerland–EU Agreement on the Free Movement of Persons. Since then, EU/EFTA nationals do not need a permit for engagements of 90 days or less. Source: RTS (link above) and “Saisonnier, un statut qui renaît de ses cendres” — https://swissinfo.ch/fre/politique/permis-de-travail_saisonnier--un-statut-qui-rena%C3%AEt-de-ses-cendres/37740086
• 1990s: wave of refugees from the conflicts in the former Yugoslavia — a period during which arrivals from Southeast Europe, including Kosovo, became established, which is part of the background to Kosovo’s continued presence among Switzerland’s top foreign nationalities today (see section 3.2).
• 2010s – present: rise in asylum applications linked to the Syrian civil war and the situation in Afghanistan. The main origin countries of the 25,781 asylum applications filed in 2025 are Afghanistan and Eritrea (see section 3.1).

• The time needed to add one million inhabitants has been shrinking: from 5 to 6 million (1955→1967, 12 years), from 7 to 8 million (1994→2012, 18 years), and from 8 to 9 million (2012→2024, 12 years). Net immigration has been the main driver of population growth since 1945 (see section 4 and the Avenir Suisse analysis).
• Limitation: as in the Austria case, precise decade-by-decade foreign-population share figures for the 1950s–1970s are not available in text form from OFS at this time.

3.4 Age structure (by migration status)

• According to OFS, in 2025 the population aged 65 and over exceeded the population under 20 for the first time (1,811,000 aged 65+ versus 1,802,000 under 20, provisional figures). The old-age dependency ratio (population 65+ relative to population 20–64, ×100) reached 32.9 in 2025, up from 25.7 in 2005 and 29.0 in 2015. Source: OFS, “Population trend (2025 provisional figures)” press release (published April 1, 2026) — https://www.admin.ch/fr/newnsb/acGCTisDEW60tUk1jSz4Z
• A full age-structure breakdown by migration status (non-migrant / first generation / second generation) appears to exist in OFS’s “statut migratoire” data tables. No disaggregated figures published by OFS. OFS notes that the age structure of children under 15 born outside Switzerland is “inverted-pyramid” shaped (narrow at the youngest ages, i.e. dominated by children who immigrated in early childhood), whereas children born in Switzerland show a “rectangular” age structure — a notable descriptive finding showing that age patterns differ structurally by origin. Source: OFS, “Age”: https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/fr/home/statistiques/population/effectif-evolution/age.html

3.5 Long-term projection (to 2055)

• Under OFS’s reference scenario, Switzerland’s total population is projected to grow from 9.05 million at the end of 2024 to 10.5 million in 2055, with OFS itself stating that immigration is the main driver of this growth. The high scenario projects 11.7 million; the low scenario, 9.3 million. Source: OFS, “Les scénarios de l’évolution de la population de la Suisse et des cantons” press release — https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfsstatic/dam/assets/14963222/master
• From 2035 onward, natural population growth (births minus deaths) is projected to turn negative, meaning all subsequent population growth will come from net migration alone — and OFS expects migration trends to become increasingly dependent on economic conditions as a result.
• Continued aging: the population aged 65+ is projected to grow by approximately 50% between 2024 and 2055, with the old-age ratio rising from 38 (per 100 people aged 20–64, on a slightly different basis than the figure above) in 2025 to over 50 by 2055. Source: OFS, “Scénarios de l’évolution démographique de la Suisse 2025 à 2055” — https://bevoelkerungsszenarien.bfs.admin.ch/fr
• Important caveat: as with Denmark’s DST and Austria’s Statistik Austria, OFS’s population projection scenarios do not, in the sources consulted during this research, provide an official year-by-year projection of the population share by origin (Swiss nationality vs. foreign nationality).

4. Public finances — net cost

• No Swiss study identified at this stage reaches the level of longitudinal detail of the Danish Ministry of Finance (Finansministeriet) methodology (annual series by age/origin/length of stay). Available analyses are more ad hoc and macroeconomic or sectoral in nature.
• Methodology 1 — an Ecoplan study (a private economic consultancy) commissioned by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO, a federal public body) on the links between regional economic promotion and labor migration: regional economic promotion generates approximately 4% additional labor migration, three-quarters of which is in rural or structurally weak regions; the study does not conclude that supported companies recruit more abroad than other companies. Source (sponsor: SECO): https://www.seco.admin.ch (Ecoplan study “Standortförderung und Zuwanderung” — available via the SECO publications portal).
• Methodology 2 — a special SECO economic briefing note (2015) on “Immigration and economic growth” (Immigration et croissance économique), analyzing the effect of net immigration on GDP and GDP per capita in Switzerland since the introduction of EU free movement of persons. Source (sponsor: SECO, federal public body): https://www.seco.admin.ch/dam/seco/fr/dokumente/Publikationen_Dienstleistungen/Publikationen_Formulare/Wirtschaftslage/Konjunkturtendenzen/Spezialthema/Immigration%20und%20Wirtschaftwachstum.pdf.download.pdf
• Economic analyses commissioned by the federal administration generally conclude that a sustained limitation of immigration would worsen Switzerland’s structural problems (population aging, labor shortages, rising health costs). See SECO studies cited above.
• The liberal think tank Avenir Suisse has published analyses on demographic growth linked to net migration (about four-fifths of Swiss demographic growth attributable to the net migration balance), but no net-cost-per-capita study comparable to the Danish methodology has been located on its site. Sponsor note: Avenir Suisse is funded by Swiss companies and employer organizations (a funding bias to be mentioned). Source: Avenir Suisse, “Switzerland Keeps Growing”: https://www.avenir-suisse.ch/en/blog-switzerland-keeps-growing/
• No official OFS/SECO primary source for net cost per immigrant (broken down by permit category) has been located.

4.1 Pension system / old-age dependency ratio

• The old-age dependency ratio (population 65+ relative to population aged 20–64, ×100) has risen continuously, from 25.7 in 2005 to 29.0 in 2015 and 32.9 in 2025. Fifty years ago Switzerland had one pensioner for every five working-age people; today the ratio is one in three, and OFS projections suggest it could approach one in two by 2055. Source: OFS, “Population trend (2025 provisional figures)” press release (published April 1, 2026) — https://www.admin.ch/fr/newnsb/acGCTisDEW60tUk1jSz4Z; OFS, “Scénarios de l’évolution démographique de la Suisse 2025 à 2055” — https://bevoelkerungsszenarien.bfs.admin.ch/fr
• Important caveat: this old-age dependency ratio is a national aggregate, not broken down by nationality or migration background. As with the Danish case (section 4.1), no official data broken down by origin (Swiss nationality vs. foreign nationality, first vs. second generation) on pension-system dependency or net fiscal contribution rates has been published.

5. Labor market

• In Q2 2025, employed foreign workers increased by 2.3% year-on-year, reaching nearly 1.87 million people, while employed Swiss workers decreased by 0.3% over the same period. Source: OFS, “Labor market balance” (Bilan du marché du travail) / quarterly employment-unemployment releases: https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/fr/home/statistiques/travail-remuneration.html
• ILO-definition unemployment rate, Q2 2025: 4.6% national average (237,000 people unemployed), but 7.7% for the foreign population versus 3.3% for Swiss residents — a gap of more than double, a clear comparison benchmark between native and foreign populations. Figures confirmed exactly by the OFS source. Source: OFS (link above).
• Trend by permit type (between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025): +2.9% for permit B/L holders (residence), +1.5% for cross-border commuters (permit G, about 410,000 people), +0.7% for permit C holders (settlement); a decrease of -5.8% for permit L holders (short-term) — illustrating strong heterogeneity by permit category. Source: OFS/SEM, residence permit statistics: https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/fr/home/statistiques/population/migration-integration/nationalite-etrangere.html

6. Security / justice

• Police crime statistics (SPC, OFS): breakdown by nationality and residence status available — one of the most detailed datasets in Europe on this point, to be used with methodological rigor.
• In 2024, 91,929 people were investigated (suspects) for offenses under the Criminal Code, up 1,526 people from 2023 (+1.7%). Breakdown by residence status: 42.3% Swiss nationals, 31.4% foreigners holding a settlement or residence permit (B/C), 6.7% asylum seekers or persons admitted on a provisional/protected basis (permits N/F). Source: OFS, “Police crime statistics (SPC) — 2024 annual report”: https://www.bfs.admin.ch/asset/en/34847184
• 563,633 criminal offenses were recorded by police in 2024, up 7.9% year-on-year. Source: OFS (link above).
• Official OFS methodological caveat: the SPC breaks down data by residence status precisely to distinguish settled residents (permit C), temporary residents (permit B), asylum seekers (permit N), and persons under protection/provisional admission (permit F) — aggregating these categories under the generic term “foreigners” should be avoided, as it conflates very different demographic and migration profiles (e.g., a long-established EU/EFTA resident does not have the same profile as a recent asylum seeker).

7. Education

• According to the international PISA survey (OECD), as relayed by OFS, second-generation immigrant-background students in Switzerland achieve results broadly comparable to those of students without a migration background. However, Switzerland stands out for a particularly pronounced performance gap between disadvantaged students and students from privileged backgrounds — among the largest of PISA-participating countries. Source: OECD PISA 2022 — https://www.oecd.org/pisa/; Swiss national report: CSRE/SKBF, “Education in Switzerland — 2026 Report”: https://www.skbf-csre.ch/fileadmin/files/pdf/bildungsberichte/2026/BiBer_2026_FR.pdf
• The exact share of students of foreign nationality or with a migration background by school level (primary/secondary) for the 2024/2025 school year is published by OFS, “Education and science” (Éducation et science): https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/fr/home/statistiques/education-science.html

8. Housing

• Strong cantonal heterogeneity in the share of foreign population: Geneva (37.6%) is the canton with the highest proportion, followed by Ticino, Basel-Stadt, and Vaud (all above 25%). No verified figures published at this time.
• Immigration is among the topics of concern cited by the Swiss population in general opinion surveys from 2025, but no official primary source with a verifiable link has been located for this specific data point.

10. Recent political context

• Swiss direct democracy: several popular votes on immigration (e.g., the 2014 “against mass immigration” initiative, votes on asylum) — an institutional specificity of Switzerland worth explaining to a Japanese audience, which has no equivalent mechanism.
• The 2002 entry into force of the Agreement on the Free Movement of Persons came with a structural policy shift — the abolition of the seasonal worker status (see section 3.3) — illustrating how bilateral agreements with the EU shape the broad framework of Swiss immigration policy, a distinctive institutional constraint.

11. Data limitations and biases

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